(Houston Chronicle):After weeks of grim, ever-worsening statistics, Houston medical and public health leaders say the area has begun to flatten the COVID-19 curve, the rate at which the disease is spreading through the community.The start of such flattening, seen in testing and hospitalization data, represents the turning of a significant corner for an area that has been shut down for more than a month to curb the spread of the novel coronavirus, which causes COVID-19. The virus has infected more than 2 million people globally and killed more than 33,000 in the U.S.“We haven’t peaked yet, but we’re seeing very encouraging signs that the curve is flattening,” said Dr. Marc Boom, president of Houston Methodist. “The number of people testing positive has slowed and hospitalizations have also leveled off.”All the stories, all the timeUnlock The Chronicle for 95¢SUBSCRIBEDr. Paul Klotman, president of Baylor College of Medicine, added that the trend is “definitely positive — we’re getting closer to the peak.” But he noted that “the peak is not a good place to be. The only safe place is when we’re going toward the valley.”Texas Medical Center leaders told Mayor Sylvester Turner this week that the rate of the virus’s spread, exponential early, has definitely slowed. But they were quick to warn again complacency and stressed that now, more than ever, people need to keep aggressively practicing social distancing.Related StoriesCOLLEGEBRENT ZWERNEMAN2020 Texas A&M football status report: The OLASTROSCHANDLER ROMEWith baseball on hold, Astros' Alex Bregman focused on charity...JOHN MCCLAINBY JOHN MCCLAIN, STAFF WRITERMcClain: Don’t be surprised if Texans trade downLIFESTYLEBY LISA GRAY, STAFF WRITER‘We are the response.’ How a Harvey rescuer retooled his...LIFESTYLEBY MIKE MOFFITT, SAN FRANCISCO CHRONICLE STAFF WRITERCOVID-19 myths are spreading as fast as the virus itselfJORDAN RAY, DUG BEGLEY, HANNAH DELLINGER, HOUSTON CHRONICLECoronavirus live updates: Abbott unveils timeline to reopen TexasERICA GRIEDERBY ERICA GRIEDER, STAFF WRITERTexas AG shouldn’t scoff at legitimate coronavirus concernsBUSINESSBY SERGIO CHAPA, STAFF WRITERSchlumberger’s $7.4B loss sets stage for ‘most...EDITORIALSBY THE EDITORIAL BOARDThumbs: Dallas Cowboy’s social-distancing foulLETTERS[Letters] Are we ready for Rep. Dan Crenshaw’s response to...Public health leaders nationally and locally have stressed the need to flatten the curve by social distancing to reduce the number of deaths and prevent the health care system from being inundated with patients. Oft cited is the situation in New York City, which ran out of hospital beds and to date has suffered nearly 11,500 deaths because measures were not adopted until well into the outbreak. There have been 103 deaths so far in the Houston area.The Houston area, which benefited from the virus arriving later, acted comparatively sooner, closing bars and restaurants and canceling popular events, including its livestock show and rodeo, in early to mid-March, before Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo on March 24 issued a stay-at-home order that shut down all but essential businesses. Similar orders were issued in surrounding counties.A week later, Hidalgo extended the order through the end of April. She has yet to decide whether to extend the stay-at-home order beyond April 30.‘Too early to tell’Despite the measures, the Houston area’s COVID-19 numbers continued to spike — expected, experts said, because of the virus’s incubation time of two to 14 days, the sometimes slow disease progression, the lack of access to testing and the often lengthy delays in lab results.But in recent days, public health officials said, the signs such measures are working have become evident.According to new research by two Harvard scientists and a Baylor doctor, for instance, the rate at which the virus is spreading dropped from nearly 30 percent a week and a half ago to almost 5 percent as of Wednesday. That means the time it takes to double the size of the outbreak has gone from every three days to 20 days now.Now Playing'COVID-19 in 60': April 17, 2020Houston ChronicleParking Lot Prayer and PraiseHouston ChronicleEaster in the Age of COVID-19Houston ChronicleCoronavirus health care: ER nurse dresses for protectionHouston ChronicleHouston shoppers line up for food as COVID-19 fears mountHouston Chronicle'COVID-19 in 60': Houston coronavirus news in a minuteVideo: Houston Chronicle“It’s too early to really tell — the next week or two will be crucial — but Houston’s social distancing appears to be doing enormous good,” said Dr. Mark Siedner, a Harvard professor of medicine and infectious disease specialist at Massachusetts General Hospital. “The trend over the last week is really positive.”The next two weeks are when a number of models project Houston’s cases will peak.Officials said not to read too much into daily counts, which can go up or down depending on the day’s number of test results returned by laboratories, often in batches that include a backlog of cases. Dr. David Persse, health authority for the Houston Health Department, complained about that tendency by the labs Wednesday.The officials said to look at the average number of cases over a week’s time. Klotman noted that the area’s count went from 1,200 cases April 1 to 2,800 cases April 7 to 5,200 cases April 14 — that is, up 133 percent in the first six days, 85 percent in the last seven days.Positive test rates also show a flattening. Gulshan Sharma, chief medical officer at the University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston, said the county testing positive rate in the last week has dropped from between 10 and 12 percent in the beginning to between 2 and 4 percent. Others say that’s partly a reflection of testing a wider variety of people than just those with severe disease, the case at the beginning.‘Cautiously optimistic’Hospitalizations are also encouraging. Memorial Hermann and Methodist health systems, which have seen the area's most COVID-19 patients in their system hospitals, reported a gradual increase in their censuses last week but a decrease since. Memorial Hermann had 167 COVID-19 patients Thursday, down from 189 on April 10; Methodist had 173 on Thursday, down from 202 on Sunday.The area’s overall hospital occupancy rate is 69 percent and ICU bed rate is 85 percent, according to the SouthEast Texas Regional Advisory Council, which oversees the area response to medical emergencies. Despite ups and downs, those percentages have been relatively flat during the outbreak.Texas Medical Center hospital officials expressed confidence this week that they will be able to handle any surge of patients without the need to send patients to other area hospitals or a makeshift hospital under construction at NRG Stadium. The hospitals can expand by more than 20 percent under internal contingency plans.“We are cautiously optimistic with the trending data,” said Dr. Umair Shah, executive director of Harris County Public Health. “We know the prevention measures put in place, such as the stay-at-home order, are slowing down the disease transmission.”But like the TMC leaders, Shah emphasized the area isn’t out of the clear yet. He said that “if we try to do ‘business as usual,’ we run the risk of seeing a dramatic increase of cases that could unravel the progress that we have made.” He called it essential to ensure there is the necessary public health infrastructure in place — such as universal testing and contact tracing — “so that we are ready to respond to either a ‘second wave’ or have a focused response to the virus being re-introduced into the community.”Jasper Scherer contributed to this report.todd.ackerman@chron.comSign up for Breaking News alertsWe're tracking COVID-19 across Texas. Get updates delivered to your inbox.SIGN UPBy subscribing, you agree to our Terms of use and acknowledge that your information will be used as described in our Privacy Policy.Todd AckermanTodd Ackerman is a veteran reporter who has covered medicine for the Houston Chronicle since 2001. A graduate of the University of California at Los Angeles, he previously worked for the Raleigh News & Observer, the National Catholic Register, the Los Angeles Downtown News and the San Clemente Sun-Post.Past Articles from this Author:Blood plasma therapy for COVID-19 patients coming to more Houston hospitalsAs Houston-area COVID-19 hospitalizations climb, uncertainty remains over when downslope beginsMethodist transfuses blood into 2 more COVID-19 patientsNEWSLETTERCoronavirus updatesGet breaking news alerts and a morning briefing with the latest on COVID-19 and other local news.SIGN UPBy subscribing, you agree to our Terms of use and acknowledge that your information will be used as described in our Privacy Policy.Most PopularHome sales volume, prices predicted to be impacted for a yearGov. 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